2013-09-03

Always several steps behind.

Why is it I'm shocked, but not surprised by this?

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/09/03

"There are at least 12 significant feedbacks that will have a substantial effect on the rate and pace of warming. Yet feedbacks are often too complex to fully characterize, let alone model.  Yet their effects are serious.  For example just 3 of these feedbacks could add as much as 4.5 degrees to the warming forecasts for 2100.

The first is a result of decreases  in sulfur aerosols from phytoplankton, as the seas become more acidic and these critters begin to die off.  Sulfur aerosols are known to moderate solar gain and mitigate global warming.  This could increase warming by close to 1F by 2100.

Extreme weather events could add another 1.5 F since they effect the Earth’s ability to sequester human emissions and in some cases increase those emissions directly.Add these to the 2 F expected from methane releases – a conservative number if one compares the results of similar events in the geologic record – and these 3 feedbacks alone could add 4.5 F to our worst-case projections for 2100.

And of course, warming doesn’t simply stop in 2100, merely because we stop modeling beyond that.  It continues and accelerates, and, unchecked, becomes self-reinforcing and irreversible.  We’re already locked into thousands of years of sea level rise from the carbon we’ve put into the system to date. "

No comments:

Post a Comment