Assume the following changes to the base case assumptions:
3 million uncounted ballots (Clinton 90%); 2 million illegals (Clinton 80%); 4 million Trump votes flip to Clinton. Trump wins by 4.0 million: 66.8-62.8 (48.7-45.8%)
Total | Clinton | Trump | Other | |
Recorded vote | 136.22 | 65.72 | 62.89 | 7.61 |
48.25% | 46.17% | 5.59% | ||
Illegal | 3.0 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0 |
Uncounted | 7.0 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0 |
Vote Flip | 4.0 | -4.0 | 4.0 | 0 |
True Vote | 140.22 | 64.9 | 67.7 | 7.6 |
46.3% | 48.3% | 5.4% |
Worst case: (4 million illegals, 3 million votes flip to Trump) Clinton wins by 0.83 million
Base Case: (3 million illegals, 4 million votes flip to Trump) Trump wins by 2.77 million
Best case: (2 million illegals, 5 million votes flip to Trump) Trump wins by 3.57 million
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