https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/key-climate-panel-citing-impending-crisis-urges-crash-effort-reduce-emissions
Given accumulated emissions, the report says, “Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052.”
It warns that overshooting 1.5°C will be disastrous. For example, with 1.5°C of warming, sea levels are projected to rise 26 to 77 centimeters by 2100; going to 2°C adds another 10 centimeters, which would affect an additional 10 million people living in coastal regions. Plants, insects, animals, and marine life will all be pushed farther out of current geographic ranges with 2°C of warming. Coral reefs are projected to decline 70% to 90% at 1.5°C, but at 2°C, 99% of reefs would be ravaged. Storms, flooding, and drought would exact an even higher toll. “Every bit of extra warming makes a difference,” said Abdalah Mokssit, director of Morocco’s National Meteorological Department in Casablanca and IPCC secretary.
The panel says keeping warming to 1.5°C is technically feasible, but the emissions cuts pledged so far by the nations that signed the Paris agreement fall far short of what’s needed. To hit and keep that 1.5°C target, net anthropogenic CO2 emissions must come down 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero around 2050.
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